Border Security/Ukraine-Israel Aid Prognosis
It’s not looking great for Border Security/Ukraine aid this year — but there’s still reason to think it could get done in early 2024.
The Senate continued talks yesterday around a package of foreign aid and border security, but the tone was decidedly pessimistic about getting anything done quickly.
“Obviously, we’re not going to get it done this week. We all know that now,” said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), the second-ranking GOP senator.
Still, as complex as any deal might be with a divisive subject like immigration involved, here are the reasons a compromise might get done eventually, and a few reasons it might fall short.
Major Weight Behind Ukraine: Significant forces all want a Ukraine package to pass at some point. The president, Senate majority leader, Senate minority leader, and House minority leader are all vocal advocates for helping Kyiv fend off Russia. Even the most reluctant major leader, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), has said Congress can’t let Vladimir Putin win.
When you put all those people on the same side of an issue, there’s good reason to think they can get it done, even if the details still need work.
Something for Everyone: Democrats are desperate to aid Ukraine. Republicans have made the border one of their signature issues. And from a political perspective, President Joe Biden might welcome some action on immigration — one of his major polling weaknesses.
In other words, there are enough potential wins here to make everyone happy, if they can work out the balance.
Israel Support: Any package would also include money for Israel, and even amid rising criticism of the country’s conduct, there are few topics that draw more bipartisan support. No one will want to take the blame for blocking money for Israel.
Deadline: Congress works most efficiently (relatively speaking) when there’s a hard deadline. And there isn’t one when it comes to Ukraine.
January brings a shutdown threat on the 19th, so Congress will be pushing to move some kind of spending bill by then. They might be able to tie in the border and Ukraine aid on any sweeping agreement.
Of course, there’s also the chance that trying to add those two thorny subjects to long-running spending debates would only make everything more tangled and politically fraught, and that the spending deadline takes time and attention away from Ukraine.
Which leads us to the reasons the talks might fail.
Critics From Both Wings: The left won’t like tough immigration policies likely to be in any final package. The right wing, meanwhile, is sure to be furious that any Senate deal will come up short of the hard-line border bill passed by House Republicans.
So any compromise will lose votes from both sides. Negotiators will have to carefully calibrate exactly how far they can go before losing a critical mass.
Trump’s Opposition: Former President Donald Trump looms over Republican decisions on every major debate, including this one. He has been notably less interested in international alliances and warmer toward Putin than most elected officials. If he rallies GOP voters against a deal, that could make it hard on Republican members of Congress.
House Uncertainty: Johnson has voted against two previous Ukraine aid packages, so even though he has signaled support for this one, his commitment isn’t as solid as that of the other top leaders. He’s also already drawing criticism from conservative hard-liners for two compromises he’s put on the House floor, so a Ukraine deal risks becoming another mark against him.
It remains to be seen how far any immigration proposals have to go before Johnson will commit to allowing a vote on a deal.
-- Jonathan Tamair
