Estimated Budgetary Effects of H.R. 5376, the Inflation Reduction Act

• Analysis doesn’t include revenue from increased tax audits
• CBO score in line with estimates put out by Manchin, Schumer

CBO estimates that enacting this legislation would result in a net decrease in the deficit totaling $102 billion over the 2022-2031 period.

The Senate Democrats’ tax, climate and drug-price bill would reduce federal budget deficits by $102 billion over 10 years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said. 

In addition, the CBO calculated that increasing the Internal Revenue Service budget would generate $204 billion in new revenue from cracking down on tax avoidance, something that wasn’t included in the official deficit score. When that is factored in, the CBO analysis is in line with the $300 billion in deficit reduction claim initially made for the bill by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. 

The CBO estimate will be used both to sell the bill to the public and by the top Senate rules official to determine whether provisions comply with the chamber’s budget rules. Elements that don’t affect the budget could be stricken from the bill.

The deficit decrease is driven in part by a repeal of a Trump administration restriction on prescription drug rebates, generating $122 billion and by allowing Medicare to negotiate the cost of high-priced drugs, which generates $102 billion.

A 15% corporate minimum tax on large corporations generates $313 billion, as expected, while a narrowing of the carried interest loophole nets $13 billion in the score, slightly less than Democrats forecast.

The bill’s spending includes $31 billion to provide Obamacare premium subsidies for three years along with a slew of tax breaks for clean energy. 

Budget watchdogs on Wednesday urged Congress to resist pressure by business groups to gut the corporate tax and carried interest changes.

“The Inflation Reduction Act is the largest deficit-reduction bill in over a decade. But it’s only a first step toward fighting surging inflation and tackling our $24 trillion national debt. We can’t let special interests water it down,” said Maya MacGuineas of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Stabenow Seeks Changes to EV Tax Credit Limits: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) is seeking last-minute changes to strict new electric-vehicle tax-credit limits in the deal amid a pressure campaign from the auto industry. Her effort risks creating new hurdles for Senate Democrats struggling to secure 50 votes. Stabenow called the provision a “serious concern,” adding that the EV tax credit, worth billions of dollars, wouldn’t be usable for years. Read more from Ari Natter and Erik Wasson.

Sinema Wants to Nix Carried Interest Loophole: Another key holdout is Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), who’s seeking changes to the tax and climate measure, Politico reports, citing multiple people familiar with the matter. Sinema wants to remove the carried interest loophole provision and would like to add about $5 billion in drought resiliency,